crimea: the war before the war

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Luca Léry Moffat

Economics reporter

Luca is the economics reporter for the Kyiv Independent. He was previously a research analyst at Bruegel, a Brussels-based economics think tank, where he worked on Russia and Ukraine, trade, industrial policy, and environmental policy. Luca also worked as a data analyst at Work-in-Data, a Geneva-based research center focused on global inequality, and as a research assistant at the Economic Policy Research Center in Kampala, Uganda. He holds a BA honors degree in economics and Russian from McGill University. Luca is originally from the UK.

For media & speaking inquiries:
press@kyivindependent.com

Articles

President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses parliamentarians at the Verkhovna Rada in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2024.

Ukraine's parliamentary dysfunction, explained

Ukraine's parliament is in gridlock as relations have broken down between the legislative and executive branches of government. The parliamentary crisis, as some have rushed to describe it, has been ignited by the President's Office's weakening influence over the legislature and a lack of communication between parliament and the Cabinet of Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, lawmakers and analysts have told the Kyiv Independent. "(Svyrydenko) works only with the President's Office and does not wo
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives at the European Council meeting in Brussels, Belgium, on June 26, 2025.

Why Ukraine could start losing Western aid for the first time

by Luca Léry Moffat
For more news like this directly into your inbox, subscribe to our weekly Ukraine Business Roundup newsletter. Billions in urgently needed financing to Ukraine are at risk as a deepening political crisis jeopardizes access to aid — all while Hungary continues to block a separate financial lifeline. Ukraine has so far failed to implement reforms needed to unlock almost $4 billion in World Bank and EU loans, putting it on track to permanently lose access to some earmarked funds for the first tim

It's official — Ukraine has a new bank

by Luca Léry Moffat
Ukraine will have a new bank on its books as of tomorrow, after Estonian fintech Iute Group finalized its entry into the market on March 16 — the first foreign bank to enter the country's competitive banking sector since 2021. Representatives from Iute and Ukraine's Deposit Guarantee Fund announced on Monday at a press conference in Kyiv that Ukraine's central bank had approved the sale, paving the way for the bank to begin operations tomorrow. Iute purchased a bridge bank from Ukraine's guara

What Trump's 'jackpot for Putin' move on Russian oil sanctions means

The United States issued a temporary license on March 12 allowing countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea in an effort to stabilize global energy prices, the U.S. Treasury Department announced. The decision marks a major shift in Washington's sanctions enforcement strategy. Washington had previously framed potential sanctions relief as leverage to push Russia toward concessions in negotiations to end its full-scale war against Ukraine. Now, however, the geopolitical shock

'Russian barrels are in demand' — Oil price spike boosts Russia's economy

by Luca Léry Moffat
The Iran war could be a boon for Russia, experts say, as turmoil in global energy markets changes the calculus for the world's largest petrostate. January and February this year were bleak on the fiscal front for Russia, as low oil prices, a looming global oil glut, and compounding sanctions tightened the screws on Russia's energy sector. The country relies in large part on its colossal oil and gas revenues to fund its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — now in its fifth year. But energy prices h

'I don’t remember prices rising this fast' — Soaring oil prices strain Ukraine’s war economy

The Iran war is hitting Ukrainians at the pump, as rising global energy prices ripple through the war-battered economy that is only just emerging from an energy crisis and significant bout of inflation. Diesel prices hit $1.64 a liter on March 9, according to Ukrainian fuel market analyst group A-95 Consulting, a 16% climb compared with one month prior. Petrol prices rose by 12% in the same period. "I’ve been working in this market for 25 years, and I don’t remember prices rising this fast," S
KSE ProfTech students attend welding training classes at the KSE ProfTech facility in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 25, 2026.

'Tinder for the labor market' — How Ukraine is trying to fix a critical shortage

Since Dmytro Volynets studied mechanical engineering at university over a decade ago, he's worked in retail, call centers, and on a warehouse floor. Unable to join the army due to a spine injury, the 35-year-old has struggled to find a coherent career path related to his studies — even as several industries offering high paying jobs face labor shortages. In large part because of Russia's full-scale invasion, Volynets' story is typical right now in Ukraine — despite possessing some of the highe