A US general just threatened Russia's Kaliningrad — this is why that's so significant
A Russian flag is seen from Pagegiai, Lithuania, separated by the river from the Kaliningrad Oblast, on July 10, 2023. (Omar Marques / Anadolu / Getty Images)
War
The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is once again in the news, after a senior U.S. military commander on July 17 issued a stark warning to the Kremlin that NATO forces could take control of it "in a timeframe that is unheard of."
The remarks from U.S. Army Europe and Africa commander General Chris Donahue are some of the strongest yet from a Western military official — a direct threat to the Kremlin about the consequences of further Russian aggression beyond Ukraine.
They come amid ever-heightening tensions between NATO and Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion, and after a series of warnings from Western officials about Moscow's future intentions to attack NATO members.
"I'm fairly certain that if the Russians were to attack the Baltic states, one of the first places to be bombed by NATO — if it isn't Moscow or St. Petersburg — would be Kaliningrad," Dr. Stephen Hall, lecturer in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath, told the Kyiv Independent.
Donahue's comments were certainly heard in Moscow. Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky, head of the Russian parliament's foreign affairs committee, warned that any attack on Kaliningrad would be met with "all the corresponding retaliatory measures, including the use of nuclear weapons."
What is Kaliningrad?
A Russian exclave hundreds of kilometers from Russia itself, Kaliningrad Oblast is a small piece of land measuring 15,100 square kilometers — not much larger than the U.S. state of Connecticut — sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.
Originally the German city of Konigsberg and surrounding area, it was ceded to the Soviet Union in the immediate aftermath of World War 2, and was renamed Kaliningrad in 1946.
It has a short, western coastline on the Baltic Sea, and its capital is also called Kaliningrad.
Though small, it is of vital strategic importance to Russia, giving Moscow a second point of direct access to the Baltic Sea — the other being through its most eastern arm in the Finnish Gulf.
Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet has its headquarters and main base in Kaliningrad Oblast. The headquarters of the Russian Admiralty is based in St. Petersburg, also located on the Baltic Sea.
"Kaliningrad is one of the most militarized parts of Europe," Dr. Hall said, adding: "It's basically a military base with a city in the middle."
A December 2023 report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said the exclave was home to a "formidable" arsenal of weapons that includes "cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and nuclear weapons."
"They don't need to send tanks for that."
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in June 2024 that up to 100 tactical nuclear warheads might be stored at a suspected nuclear weapons storage site in the exclave.
Satellite images taken in May showed the same site has undergone significant reconstruction with the addition of triple-layered fencing, new buildings, and advanced communications equipment.
The flashpoint
Since the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a steady stream of Western officials has issued increasingly stark statements on the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Last month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia could be ready to launch an attack against the alliance within five years, and a recent German intelligence assessment said Moscow may seek to start a lower-intensity confrontation that will test the U.S.'s willingness to fulfill its obligations under Article 5.
"They don't need to send tanks for that," German intelligence chief Bruno Kah said.
"They just have to send 'little green men' to Estonia to defend the allegedly oppressed Russian minority."
With tensions rising, experts say Kaliningrad would likely be at the center of any clash between NATO and Russia, or more specifically, a narrow strip of land that stretches from the oblast to Belarus.
The Suwalki Gap is the closest point between Kaliningrad Oblast, and Belarus, one of Russia's staunchest allies.
It's a mere 40 kilometers wide and closely tracks the Poland-Lithuania border on the Polish side.
"I think that he's trying to highlight that NATO still has the capacity to give Russia a bloody nose and Kaliningrad would be a particularly bloody nose."
In the event of a war between NATO and Russia, Russian and Belarusian forces linking up across the Suwalki Gap would cut off the only land route to all three Baltic States.
"There's a reason why the Russians have been training to take the Suwalki Gap for a long time," Dr Hall said.
As such, Kaliningrad would be a prime target for NATO in any effort to thwart Moscow's plans.
"I can imagine that would be one of the first things NATO would try and do, to stop any flows of munitions getting into Kaliningrad and effectively push that region out of the war as quickly as possible," he said.
He adds this would also severely limit Russia's ability to project force into the Baltic Sea using its Baltic Fleet, which would pose a serious threat to countries in the region.
Would NATO strike first?
A NATO first strike against Russia is highly unlikely, which begs the question: Why is General Donahue making such comments now?
Dr. Hall said it's likely an attempt to send a message to the Kremlin and assuage any doubts that the U.S. would defend NATO's Article 5.
"I think that he's trying to highlight that NATO still has the capacity to give Russia a bloody nose, and Kaliningrad would be a particularly bloody nose," he said.
"It's merely trying to shore up the effect that America is going to be here for the long haul and that NATO is going to be a military organization for a lot longer."
Donahue was speaking as he gave details about a new allied strategy known as the "Eastern Flank Deterrence Line."
The initiative focuses on bolstering land forces, integrating defense production, and deploying standardized digital systems and launch platforms for rapid battlefield coordination.
"The land domain is not becoming less important, it's becoming more important," Donahue said.
"You can now take down anti-access, area-denial bubbles from the ground. You can now take over the sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine."
Both Donahue's words and the new initiative will likely be welcomed in the Baltic States where people who spoke to the Kyiv Independent earlier this year have been unnerved about U.S. President Donald Trump's apparently wavering commitment to protecting Europe against Russian aggression.
Lithuania was the first Soviet republic to proclaim independence in 1990, one year before Ukraine, and joined NATO in 2004, providing the country with the security of the military alliance's collective defense clause in the event of Russian aggression.
But Trump, and his increasingly hostile attitude to Europe and Ukraine left many Lithuanians fearing that being a member of NATO is not the security guarantee it once was.
Ignas Zalieckas, a Lithuanian cultural journalist living in Germany, told the Kyiv Independent in March that the now-infamous Oval Office showdown between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky caused "total panic" among his friends and family back home.
"Everybody was thinking that NATO is kind of gone," he said.
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