Putin may have shifted war objectives towards holding occupied territories, boosting economy, intelligence suggests

New Western intelligence suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have shifted his immediate war objectives towards holding occupied Ukrainian territories as well as growing his country's struggling economy, CNN reported on May 1, citing Western officials familiar with the matter.

The assessment, shared by unnamed U.S. and Western officials, suggests a shift in Putin's calculus of the situation, amid previous intelligence that suggested Russia's momentum on the battlefield may provide an opportunity for Moscow to entirety Ukraine.

Despite continuing to make marginal progress on the battlefield and capturing small pockets of territory near the front line, a senior U.S. official told CNN that there was "zero indication" Russia would be able to secure large swaths of land in the immediate future.

"The Russian objective is to get as much territory recognized as possible and have as weak of a Ukraine as possible," the U.S. official said, as peace negotiations are ongoing.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted on April 28 that the international recognition of its hold over Crimea, as well as the entirety of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, were a condition for peace negotiations. Despite the demands, President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated Ukraine will not recognize any occupied territories as part of Russia under a potential future peace agreement with Moscow.

The U.S. is reportedly considering a de jure recognition of Russia's control over Crimea as part of a potential peace deal and de facto control over other occupied territories. At the same time, U.S. officials are said to have rejected a demand for Ukraine's complete withdrawal from the other four regions.

The potential shift in attitudes on near-terms objectives for the Kremlin also comes amid growing economic hardship in the country, marred by international sanctions over the war.

U.S. President Donald Trump has sought to reset relations and potentially increase economic cooperation with Moscow following a negotiated peace deal, but has recently questioned Moscow's intentions to achieve peace, suggesting that the Kremlin may be "tapping me along." Trump has said that the U.S. may impose new sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire is not reached.

A senior European official familiar with the new intelligence told CNN that Moscow was willing to "play along" to improve its standing with the U.S., but added that Russia "clearly hasn’t given up on their maximalist war ends."

Despite the potential shift in objectives, U.S. officials remain skeptical of Putin's long-term ambitions in Ukraine, CNN reported.

In February, unclassified intelligence assessment from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service suggested that Russia may find the opportunity to launch a large-scale war on Europe within five years.

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The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir