NYT: 2023 southern counteroffensive was undermined by Syrskyi's desire to take back Bakhmut

Ukraine's southern counteroffensive on Melitopol in 2023 was sidelined by a push to retake Bakhmut, the New York Times reported on March 29.

Melitopol, a strategically-located city in Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, has been under Russian occupation since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

The Ukrainian military saw its capture as a decisive move — one that could disrupt Russian supply lines and sever the land corridor sustaining Moscow’s grip on Crimea, according to the New York Times' extensive investigation into U.S.-Ukraine strategic planning throughout the full-scale war.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was later named Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, was serving as head of the country’s Ground Forces when he reportedly advocated for a shift in strategy — one that prioritized regaining ground in and around Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast from Russian forces.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who was commander-in-chief at the time, reportedly aligned with the U.S.-backed plan of focusing on the main effort to push towards Melitopol, but the plan was objected to by Syrksyi, whom President Volodymyr Zelensky ultimately sided with.

According to the unnamed U.S. officials cited by the New York Times, Syrskyi also called for only newly-trained brigades to be used on the Melitopol axis, while keeping the experienced brigades initially intended for the southern counteroffensive for his push on Bakhmut.

Although Ukrainian forces did manage to progress around ten kilometers south on the Melitopol axis, they were stopped upon reaching the main line of Russia's network of fortifications built in prepareation for the offensive.

Bakhmut fell to Russian forces in late spring 2023. It would go on to be described as one of the bloodiest battles of the full-scale war. While Ukrainian forces did take back some territory around the destroyed city that summer, the offensive ran out of steam still far away from the goal of retaking Bakhmut.

Ultimately, none of the three axes of the summer counteroffensive, which also included a push in southwestern Donetsk Oblast in the direction of occupied Mariupol, managed to achieve an operational breakthrough.

Since then, apart from Ukraine's attempt to cross the river Dnipro in late 2023 and the surprise cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024, — both of which ended in withdrawal — Kyiv has been in a strategic defensive posture, with prospects for a future counteroffensive slim to none.

One Ukrainian official told the New York Times that seeing the decision made to attack Bakhmut was "like watching the demise of the Melitopol offensive even before it was launched," and a senior American official claimed that the U.S. "should have walked away" from advising Ukraine after the change in plan.

Ukraine’s pivotal liberation of most of Kharkiv Oblast in the fall of 2022 reportedly played a crucial role in shaping Syrskyi’s position. The successful operation not only shifted the course of the war but also reportedly bolstered his standing with President Volodymyr Zelensky, cementing his influence in military strategy.

Russia preparing new offensive in ‘coming weeks’ to strengthen negotiating position, AP reports

Russia is likely preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks to strengthen its position in possible peace talks with Ukraine, the Associated Press (AP) reported on March 29, citing Ukrainian analysts and two undisclosed G7 diplomatic sources.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek