'First to suffer' — Russia singles out Poland, Baltics in threat to NATO

Poland and the Baltic states would be the "first to suffer" in a direct conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin said on April 15.

The nations along NATO's eastern flank have sounded the alarm on escalating threats from Russia since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Any NATO aggression against Russia or Belarus would have damaging consequences for Poland and the Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, Naryshkin told the Russian state news outlet TASS.

"They should understand, but do not yet understand, that in the event of aggression by the North Atlantic Alliance against (Russia and Belarus), damage will be done, of course, to the entire NATO bloc, but to a greater extent, the first to suffer will be the bearers of such ideas among the political circles of Poland and the Baltic countries," Naryshkin said.

These countries have shown "high aggressiveness" towards Russia, he said, accusing Poland and the Baltics of "constantly rattling their weapons." Naryshkin singled out Poland for its plans to install anti-personnel mines along the border with Belarus and Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, as well as Warsaw's request for the U.S. to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on March 18 announced their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention, an international treaty banning the use, production, and stockpiling of anti-personnel mines, citing "fundamentally deteriorated" security in the region.

The defense ministers of the four countries said military threats from Russia and Belarus had "significantly increased."

Naryshkin called this posture "sad" and implied that NATO was to blame for Russia's all-out war against Ukraine — an oft-repeated Kremlin propaganda narrative used to justify the unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country.

"(Poland and the Baltic countries) just can't understand that it was the build-up of military activity on the borders of Russia and Belarus that became one of the factors, one of the reasons for the current large, acute, and very dangerous crisis on the European continent," Naryshkin claimed.

This narrative has found traction with some members of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, including Trump himself. As Russian officials escalate rhetoric against NATO member states, the White House is reportedly planning drastic funding cuts to the Alliance.

Some members of Trump's circle, including billionaire Elon Musk, have called for the U.S. to exit NATO althogether. The U.S. is also likely planning to withdraw some 10,000 troops from member states in Eastern Europe.  

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on April 13 that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, its next step may be to seize NATO territory and trigger a global conflict. Western leaders and intelligence agencies have warned of a potential large-scale war in Europe within the next five years due to Russia's increased aggression.

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The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk