Maxwell Kushnir is a research analyst at the IMF. The contents of this article do not represent the views of any entity associated with the IMF, including staff, management or members of the Executive Board. Only publicly available data is used. Russia’s invasion has caused untold devastation across Ukraine, morphing the country into a test case for democratic survival. In the first year of the full-scale war, Ukraine’s GDP shrank by almost a third, inflation jumped 20%, and the government defi